Covid-19 did not stop climate change

 

Covid-19 did not stop climate change

Climate change has not stopped for COVID-19. The concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are at record levels and continue to increase.

Emissions are moving towards pre-pandemic levels, after a temporary decline caused by the blockade and economic slowdown. The world is set to have its warmest five years on record – a trend that is likely to continue – and is not on track to meet agreed goals to keep the global temperature rise well below 2 ° C or 1.5 ° C above pre-industrial period levels.
This is according to a new report by several agencies of leading scientific organizations,  United in Science 2020  . It highlights the growing and irreversible impacts of climate change, which affect glaciers, oceans, nature, economies and human living conditions and are often felt through water-related hazards such as droughts or floods. It also documents how COVID-19 has impeded our ability to monitor these changes through the global observation system.

“This has been an unprecedented year for people and the planet. The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted lives around the world. At the same time, the warming of our planet and climatic disturbances have continued at a good pace, ”said UN Secretary-General António Guterres in a preface.

“Never before has it been so clear that we need clean, inclusive and long-term transitions to tackle the climate crisis and achieve sustainable development. We must make recovery from the pandemic a real opportunity to build a better future, ”said Guterres, who will present the report on 9 September. “We need science, solidarity and solutions.”

The  United in Science 2020 report  , the second in a series, is coordinated by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), with contributions from the Global Carbon Project, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the UNESCO Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission, the UN Environment Program and the UK Met Office. It presents the latest scientific data and findings related to climate change to inform global policy and action.

“Concentrations of greenhouse gases – which are already at their highest levels in 3 million years – have continued to increase. Meanwhile, large areas of Siberia saw a prolonged and noticeable heat wave during the first half of 2020, which would have been very unlikely without anthropogenic climate change. And now 2016-2020 is set to be the warmest five-year period on record. This report shows that although many aspects of our lives were disrupted in 2020, climate change has continued unabated, ”said WMO Secretary General Professor Petteri Taalas.

MAIN FINDINGS

Concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (World Meteorological Organization)

Atmospheric concentrations of CO  ₂  showed no signs of peak and continued to rise to new records. Reference stations on the WMO Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) network reported CO ₂ concentrations   above 410 parts per million (ppm) during the first half of 2020, with Mauna Loa (Hawaii) and Cape Grim (Tasmania) at 414.38 ppm and 410.04 ppm, in July 2020, respectively, from 411.74 ppm and 407.83 ppm in July 2019.

The reductions in CO ₂ emissions   in 2020 will only slightly impact the rate of increase in atmospheric concentrations, which are the result of past and current emissions, as well as the very long life of CO  ₂  . Sustained reductions in emissions to net zero are needed to stabilize climate change.

Global  fossil  CO  ₂ emissions  (Global Carbon Project)

The emissions  _of  CO  ₂  in 2020 will fall about 4% to 7% in 2020 due to confinement policies COVID-19. The exact decline will depend on the pandemic’s continued trajectory and government responses to tackle it.

During the peak block in early April 2020, global daily  fossil CO ₂ emissions  fell by an unprecedented 17% compared to 2019. Even so, emissions were still equivalent to 2006 levels, highlighting the sharp growth in the past 15 years and continued reliance on fossil energy sources.

At the beginning of June 2020, global daily  fossil CO ₂ emissions  had returned mainly to 5% (range 1% -8%) below the levels of 2019, which reached a new record of 36.7 Gigatonnes (Gt) in the last year, 62% higher than at the beginning of the negotiations on climate change in 1990.

Global methane emissions from human activities have continued to increase over the past decade. Current emissions of CO  ₂  and methane are not compatible with the emission trajectories consistent with the goals of the Paris Agreement.

Emission Gap (UN Environmental Program)

Transformational action can no longer be postponed if the goals of the Paris Agreement are to be met.

The Emissions Gap Report 2019 showed that the cuts in global emissions required per year from 2020 to 2030 are close to 3% for a target of 2 ° C and more than 7% per year on average for the target of 1.5 ° C of the Paris Agreement.

The Emissions Gap in 2030 is estimated at 12-15 Gigatonnes (Gt) CO  ₂  and to limit global warming below 2 ° C. For the 1.5 ° C target, the gap is estimated at 29-32 Gt CO  ₂  and approximately equivalent to the combined emissions of the six largest emitters.

It is still possible to fill the emissions gap, but this will require urgent and concerted action by all countries and in all sectors. A substantial part of the short-term potential can be realized through the expansion of existing and proven policies, for example, on renewable energy and energy efficiency, low-carbon means of transportation and elimination of coal.

Looking beyond the 2030 period, new technological solutions and gradual changes in consumption patterns are needed at all levels. Technically and economically viable solutions already exist.

Global Climate Status (UK WMO and Met Office)

The average global temperature for 2016-2020 is expected to be the warmest on record, about 1.1 ° C above 1850-1900, a reference period for temperature changes since pre-industrial times and 0.24 ° C hotter than the average global temperature for 2011-2015

In the five-year period  2020-2024  , the chance of at least one year exceeding 1.5 ° C above pre-industrial levels is 24%, with a very small chance (3%) of the five-year average exceeding that level. . It is likely (~ 70% chance) that one or more months over the next five years will be at least 1.5 ° C warmer than pre-industrial levels.

In all years between 2016 and 2020, the extent of Arctic sea ice has been below average. 2016–2019 recorded a greater loss of mass from the glacier than all other five-year periods since 1950. The rate of increase in global average sea level increased between 2011–2015 and 2016–2020.

The main impacts were caused by extreme climatic and meteorological events. A clear fingerprint of human-induced climate change has been identified in many of these extreme events.

The ocean and the cryosphere in a changing climate  (  Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)

Human-induced climate change is affecting life-sustaining systems, from the top of mountains to the depths of the oceans, leading to an accelerated rise in sea level, with cascading effects on ecosystems and human security.

This increasingly challenges adaptation responses and integrated risk management.

Ice sheets and glaciers around the world have lost mass. Between 1979 and 2018, the extent of Arctic sea ice declined in all months of the year. The increase in forest fires and the abrupt thaw of permafrost, as well as changes in the hydrology of the Arctic and mountains, have altered the frequency and intensity of ecosystem disturbances.

The global ocean has warmed uninterruptedly since 1970 and has absorbed more than 90% of excess heat in the climate system. Since 1993, the rate of ocean heating and therefore heat absorption has more than doubled. Marine heat waves doubled in frequency and became longer lasting, more intense and more extensive, resulting in large scale coral bleaching events. The ocean has absorbed between 20% and 30% of total anthropogenic emissions of CO  ₂  since the 1980s, causing more acidification of the oceans.

Since about 1950, many marine species have undergone changes in geographic distribution and seasonal activities in response to warming the ocean, changing sea ice and loss of oxygen.

The global average sea level is rising, accelerating in recent decades due to increased rates of ice loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, as well as the continued loss of glacial mass and thermal expansion of the ocean. The average global sea level increase rate for 2006-2015 of 3.6 ± 0.5 mm / year is unprecedented in the last century

Climate and Water Resources (WMO)

The impacts of climate change are most felt through changes in hydrological conditions, including changes in snow and ice dynamics.

By 2050, the number of people at risk of flooding will increase from its current level of 1.2 billion to 1.6 billion. From the beginning to the mid-2010s, 1.9 billion people, or 27% of the global population, lived in areas with potential water scarcity. In 2050, that number will increase to 2.7 to 3.2 billion people.

In 2019, 12% of the world’s population drinks water from unimproved and unsafe sources. More than 30% of the world’s population, or 2.4 billion people, live without any form of sanitation.

Climate change is expected to increase the number of regions with water scarcity and exacerbate the scarcity in regions with water scarcity.

The cryosphere is an important source of fresh water in the mountains and in their downstream regions. There is great confidence that the annual flow of glaciers will reach its global peak by the end of the 21st century at the latest. Thereafter, the flow of the glacier is expected to decline globally, with implications for water storage.

It is estimated that Central Europe and the Caucasus have reached peak water now, and that the Tibetan Plateau region will reach peak water between 2030 and 2050. As runoff from snow cover, permafrost and glaciers in this region provide up to 45% of the total river flow, the decrease in flow would affect the availability of water for 1.7 billion people.

Observations of the Earth System during COVID-19 (UNESCO Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission and WMO)

The COVID-19 pandemic had significant impacts on global observation systems, which in turn affected the quality of forecasts and other services related to weather, climate and the ocean.

The reduction in aircraft-based observations by an average of 75% to 80% in March and April has degraded the forecasting skills of weather models. Since June, there has been only a slight recovery. Observations at manually operated weather stations, especially in Africa and South America, have also been seriously disrupted.

For hydrological observations such as river flow, the situation is similar to that of atmospheric measurements in situ. Automated systems continue to provide data, while measuring stations that rely on manual reading are affected.

In March 2020, almost all oceanographic research vessels were returned to their ports of origin. Commercial ships were unable to contribute vital ocean and weather observations, and ocean buoys and other systems could not be maintained. Four surveys of total ocean depth of variables such as carbon, temperature, salinity and water alkalinity, completed only once a decade, have been canceled. Carbon measurements on the surface of ships, which tell us about the evolution of greenhouse gases, have also effectively ceased.

The impacts on monitoring climate change are long term. They are likely to prevent or restrict campaigns to measure glacier mass balance or permafrost thickness, usually conducted at the end of the thaw period. The general interruption of observations will introduce gaps in the historical series of Essential Climate Variables needed to monitor variability and climate change and the associated impacts.

 

By World Meteorological Organization (WMO) , in EcoDebate , ISSN 2446-9394, 09/11/2020

 

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